FREIGHT MARKET UPDATE | WEEK 10 | 2025

TRADE SHIFTS CONTINUE AS TARIFFS, SECTION 232 INVESTIGATIONS, AND PORT LABOR ISSUES UNFOLD

Tariffs, trade investigations, and labor disputes are adding pressure to global freight markets this week. On March 12, 2025, expanded Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum derivatives take effect, while new investigations into timber, lumber, and copper imports could lead to additional trade measures. Higher tariffs on goods from China, Hong Kong, Canada, and Mexico are now in place.

Meanwhile, French dockworker strikes and growing congestion at European ports continue to disrupt vessel schedules and squeeze capacity. Transpacific demand is still weak, with market volume at just 40–50% of normal levels. While there has been some improvement, carrier performance remains unpredictable, especially on Pacific Southwest routings into Los Angeles and Long Beach. Load factors are still low, and blank sailings are making scheduling even more difficult for importers already dealing with supply chain volatility.

U.S. TARIFFS ON CHINA, HONG KONG, CANADA, & MEXICO

Today, March 4, 2025 marks the start of new tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, while the 10% + 10% (20%) tariff on goods from China and Hong Kong is now in effect.

U.S. Tariffs on Canada & Mexico Take Effect
CBP is now enforcing a 25% tariff on most imports from Canada and Mexico, with Canadian energy products subject to a 10% tariff. While de minimis exemptions remain, this is expected to change as CBP and the Department of Commerce finalize a full enforcement framework. Cross-border importers should monitor developments closely.

China Tariff Increases Confirmed at 10% + 10% (20%)
CBP has confirmed that the additional 10% tariff applies only to entries on or after March 4, 2025, bringing the total tariff to 10% + 10% (20%). De minimis remains in place, and duty drawback is not available. Businesses using Foreign Trade Zones should evaluate whether goods will be assessed at the previous 10% rate or the full 20% upon withdrawal.

STEEL AND ALUMINUM DERIVATIVES 25% TARIFFS TAKE EFFECT MARCH 12, 2025

Tariffs on certain steel and aluminum derivatives will take effect on March 12, 2025, under expanded Section 232 measures, according to a pair of notices released by the U.S. Department of Commerce.

The new tariffs apply to 19 aluminum derivative subheadings (Chapter 76) and 157 steel derivative subheadings (Chapter 73), which will now enter under HTS subheadings 9903.85.07 and 9903.81.90. However, the effective date for additional steel and aluminum derivatives outside of Chapters 73 and 76 remains uncertain. These tariffs will take effect only after the Secretary of Commerce issues a public notification, as the agency finalizes processing and collection systems.

The Commerce notice also confirms that some imports previously exempt from tariffs—such as those from Canada, Mexico, and the EU—will now face duties under the expanded enforcement measures.

SECTION 232 INVESTIGATIONS TARGET TIMBER, LUMBER, AND COPPER IMPORTS

The White House has ordered two new Section 232 investigations, directing the Department of Commerce to assess national security risks tied to timber, lumber, and copper imports. The reviews will examine foreign market control, domestic production capacity, and trade policy options, with findings expected in the months ahead.

Timber and Lumber Investigation
A March 1, 2025, Executive Order launched an inquiry into timber, lumber, and derivative product imports, citing foreign subsidies and supply chain vulnerabilities. The investigation will assess whether tariffs, quotas, or trade restrictions are needed to support U.S. forestry and manufacturing sectors, particularly in construction and defense. A final report is due within 270 days.

Copper Investigation
The administration has also opened a Section 232 investigation into copper imports, citing supply chain risks and growing import dependence. U.S. copper production fell 11% in 2023, while import reliance climbed to 46% of consumption, with Chile, Canada, and Mexico as the top suppliers. The investigation will determine whether foreign government support, price manipulation, and overcapacity are distorting markets and undermining domestic mining, smelting, and refining operations.

EUROPEAN PORT STRIKES CONTINUE TO IMPACT REGIONAL CAPACITY

Labor disruptions at key European ports are extending into March, with French dockworkers staging repeated work stoppages across multiple dates. Dockworkers will hold four-hour stoppages between 10 AM and 4 PM (local time) on March 4, 6, 10, 12, 14, 24, and 26, 2025, while a 72-hour strike is planned for March 18–20, 2025, including a full ‘Dead Port’ operation on March 18, 2025.

With rolling strikes already contributing to vessel delays and container backlogs, the 72-hour disruption is expected to cause significant operational challenges at French ports, particularly Le Havre. Meanwhile, labor actions in Rotterdam and Antwerp continue to strain barge capacity, with extended wait times exacerbating regional congestion. Importers should anticipate potential schedule changes, shipment delays, and rerouting complications as strike activity intensifies.