Demand for air cargo from Asia to Europe surged sharply in October, with e-commerce growth offsetting the usual lull following China’s Golden Week. This unexpected demand boost shifts from typical seasonal patterns, signaling strong volume momentum driven by factors like increased online shopping promotions and new product launches. The early uptick in demand also contrasts sharply with China-to-U.S. air cargo volumes, which have dropped significantly in the second half of 2024 due to heightened scrutiny on U.S. imports from China.
VOLUMES TRENDING UP ON ASIA-EUROPE LANES
The Asia-Europe route, particularly out of Hong Kong, has seen sustained growth, with air freight increasingly sought for urgent, time-sensitive shipments. Despite the usual slowdown associated with Golden Week, volumes have climbed consistently over the past six weeks. Early October data reflects a solid increase in Hong Kong-to-Europe tonnage over last year’s levels, with consecutive growth above September averages, signaling demand through year’s end.
DE MINIMIS RULES IMPACTING CHINA-U.S. TRADE
New U.S. regulatory scrutiny poses a distinct challenge to China-U.S. air cargo volumes. The de minimis rule, which allows the duty-free entry of packages valued under $800, is widely utilized by China-based e-commerce companies, supporting current trans-Pacific volume. Recent Customs and Border Protection (CBP) actions, including tighter checks and the suspension of Type 86 access for certain brokers, reflect an intensified focus on these imports. Proposals introduced in July seek to apply Section 301 tariffs to de minimis shipments, with potential duty thresholds under review. If this exemption is revised, a reduction in e-commerce volumes on this lane could be anticipated, impacting small-package freight movement in the U.S. market.
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